ABSTRACT
Nigeria is faced with many
environmental problems. Available data indicate that Nigeria is losing her
renewable natural resources (including arable land, forest, pasture/rangeland
and water resources) beyond sustainable limits. Economic and environmental systems
interact in many important ways and hence the need to understand these
interactions and develop effective public policy. While economic systems derive
many invaluable inputs (some commodified, others free) from environmental
systems and processes, economic activity can have negative impacts on the
functional integrity of these natural systems and processes. The dynamic
interactions of the environmental degradation problem with socioeconomic
factors are neither well understood in Nigeria, nor are the implications for
the nation’s Transformation Agenda and Vision 20:2020 well appreciated. This
study, therefore, explored the inherent dynamic interactions and feedback
between the environment and socioeconomic spheres. The specific objectives were
to: (i) determine the causality of resource degradation and macroeconomic
profile, (ii) determine the causality of resource degradation and social
profile, (iii) assess the effects of resource degradation on macroeconomic
profile, (iv) assess the effects of resource degradation on social profile, and
(v) forecast the impact of resource degradation on Nigeria’s socioeconomic
profile and implications for Nigeria’s Vision 20:2020. The study adopted
time-series design. Nigeria was the unit of analysis. Time series secondary
data (from 1970 to 2010) from various sources were utilized for modeling and
analysis. A time series environmental degradation index was constructed using
the tool of principal components analysis (PCA). The constructed index (a
synoptic single number) represents the nation’s ecological footprint or
bio-capacity. The next step was the modeling of the index and seven other
variables as a dynamic vector error correction model, given the non-mean
reverting nature of the variables, and to capture the evolution and
interdependencies between the variables. Results from the analysis show that
the exploitation of renewable natural resources in Nigeria was highly
cointegrated with her socio-economic spheres as there were 5-7 cointegrated
equations in the vector error correction model (VECM). A bi-directional or
feedback relationship existed between the index of environmental degradation
and Nigeria’s socioeconomic profile. Agricultural prices, population dynamics,
public capital expenditure on agriculture, fertilizer consumption, per capita
income, life expectancy and greenhouse emissions granger-caused the index of
degradation (joint p-value = 0.0389), the index of degradation granger-caused
(p ≤ 0.05) agricultural prices, expenditure on agriculture, fertilizer consumption,
greenhouse emission, per capita income, migration and life expectancy. The
index of degradation produced significant (95% confidence level of error bands)
positive and sustained effects on Nigeria’s macroeconomic profile (including
agricultural prices, agricultural capital expenditure, fertilizer consumption
and climate change over a ten- year horizon (2011-2020). On the other hand, the
effects on Nigeria ’s social factors (such as per capita income, rural
population dynamics and life expectancy) by the index of degradation were
significantly (95% confidence level of error bands) negative and sustained over
a ten-year horizon (2011-2020). Following from these results, the study among
other things recommends a more comprehensive holistic and sustainable
development path, and strategies and policies that integrate rural development
and renewable natural resources management in order to tackle the complex,
diverse and deeply rooted issues underlying worsening environmental degradation
in Nigeria.
CHAPTER ONE
INTRODUCTION
1.1 Background
of the Study
There
exists a delicate balance between economics and the environment and for several
decades now, the challenge of achieving accelerated growth and poverty
reduction while conserving the natural environment especially in poor countries
has occupied the attention of policymakers and researchers. This global desire is
expressed in many environment and development conferences including the
environmental conference in Stockholm in 1972 and the World Commission on
Environment and Development (WCED) in 1987 (which produced the landmark
Brundtland Report: Our Common Future). Others include the UN conference on
Environment and Development (UNCED) in Rio de Janeiro in 1992,the “Earth
Summit” (which produced the Agenda 21 action plan for development and the Rio
Declaration on environmental protection and responsible development), the
Millennium Summit in New York in September 2000 producing the MDGs, and the
World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD) in Johannesburg in 2002 (CROP,
2005; Evans, 2004; Ralph & Roper, 2005).
In
Africa and sub-Saharan Africa in particular, it is acknowledged that the short-
and medium-term options for fighting poverty and growing more sustainably lie
in the rational management and utilization of its natural resources (Sergio,
Anderson, Moes, Alam, Alemu, Macoun, Utria, Sanghvi, &Hewawasam, 2004).
Forest, arableland, rangeland and water are critical natural resources not just
in Africa but also in Nigeria. The forest, arableland, rangeland and water
sectors present both unique opportunities and challenges (World Bank, 2002).
They are key to poverty reduction, sustainable development, and the maintenance
or conservation of environmental services which are central to achieving the
goals and targets ofthe Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) set by the United
Nations, and the Vision 20:2020, Medium Term Economic Plan and the
Transformation Agenda of the Federal Government of Nigeria.
As
human capacity to alter and manipulate the quality and quantity of natural
resources grows with economic and technological growth, the prospects of
resource degradation has become a paramount development concern.The landmark
report of the World Commission on Environment and Development (1987), titled
“Our Common Future”, warned that unless we change many of our lifestyle, the
world will face unacceptable levels of environmental damage and human
suffering. The Commission, echoing the urgent need for tailoring the pace and
the pattern of global economic growth to the planet’s carrying capacity, said
that: “Humanity has the ability to make development sustainable and to ensure
that it meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of
future generations to meet their own needs” (IFAD, 2007).
The
overexploitation, degradation and unsustainable management of environmental
resources can threaten economic growth and poverty reduction efforts. On one
hand, protecting the environment might increase or reduce poverty; while, on
the other hand, reducing poverty might help or hurt the environment. In the last
few years in Nigeria, losses in non-timber forest products (NTFPs) and
deforestation have been estimated at N120 billion (US$ 0.8 billion) per
year (Eboh, Kalu, Achike, Ujah, Amakom, Oduh, Nzeh& Larsen, 2005b),
representing about 15.48% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2010 at 1990
constant prices. According to the statistics from the Central Bank of Nigeria
(CBN) and the International Institute for Tropical Agriculture (IITA) (2010),
Nigeria is losing about 3.5% (350,000-400,000 hectares) of forest land per
annum. If Nigeria should continue to lose its remaining forest resources, the
economic cost will be higher than the current losses with a consequent loss in
revenue, fuel wood supply and non-timber forest products (NTFPs) supply. But
this could just be a micro view of the consequences. What about the wider
socioeconomic implications?
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